Why Taiwan still shadows the US-China relationship

The brief in 8 cards

1. Context1 / 8

   Chinese President Xi Jinping made a state visit to Washington from 23 to 25 September 2026, his first US state visit in over a decade. The two sides extended an existing trade truce, agreed to discuss artificial intelligence risks and held diplomatic engagements. Taiwan remained unresolved, with Beijing pressing Washington to oppose Taiwanese independence more explicitly. The Indian Express explainer by Lyle Morris of the Asia Society Policy Institute examines why Taiwan remains the hardest issue in the relationship despite both sides' interest in economic stability. This card summarises the parties' stated positions without endorsing any of them.

2. Key highlights2 / 8

   What the summit produced: The sides reportedly extended their Busan trade truce by two months, to 10 January. The arrangements cover rare earths and some advanced semiconductor access.

   What it did not resolve: Taiwan, AI governance and several trade specifics remained open. Analysts described the visit as heavy on ceremony and relatively light on concrete agreements.

   Beijing's stated position: Chinese state media called on the US to oppose Taiwan's formal independence. Xi has called for the US to maintain what Beijing describes as the correct position of opposing Taiwan independence.

   Washington's stated position: The US recognises the PRC as the sole legal government of China while maintaining substantive unofficial relations with Taiwan.

   Legal underpinning: The Taiwan Relations Act (1979) provides a domestic US legal basis for unofficial relations and support for Taiwan's self-defence capability.

   Why the stakes are high: Taiwan is central to advanced semiconductor supply chains and lies astride important Western Pacific sea and air routes.

3. Key concepts3 / 8

   One-China principle and One-China policy: The One-China principle is Beijing's position that there is one China, Taiwan is part of it, and the PRC is its sole legitimate government. Other States' One-China policies manage relations with Beijing and Taipei; many acknowledge Beijing's claim without adopting its full formulation. Countries with formal ties to Beijing generally lack formal diplomatic recognition of Taipei while maintaining substantial unofficial relations. Beijing's request that Washington oppose Taiwanese independence explicitly seeks to move US wording closer to its position.

   Strategic ambiguity: The US has historically avoided specifying exactly whether it would intervene militarily if China used force against Taiwan. The intended logic is dual deterrence: discourage forced unification and discourage Taipei from declaring formal independence. Critics argue uncertainty can invite miscalculation; the debate over strategic clarity remains unsettled.

   Six Assurances: Commitments conveyed by the US to Taipei in 1982 included that it had not set a date to end arms sales, had not agreed to consult Beijing in advance on such sales, and would not pressure Taiwan into negotiations. Together with the Taiwan Relations Act and US-China communiqués, they form part of Washington's policy framework.

   Semiconductors and chokepoint geography: Taiwan hosts highly advanced semiconductor manufacturing used in AI, defence systems and consumer electronics. Concentration creates supply-chain disruption risks, while the island's position near Western Pacific routes adds strategic importance.

4. Way forward4 / 8

   Maintain military-to-military and diplomatic channels to manage incidents before escalation. Discourage unilateral changes to the status quo by force or declaration. Strengthen supply-chain resilience and reduce over-dependence on one geographic chokepoint for critical technology. Preserve peaceful economic engagement and avoid treating cross-Strait competition as inevitably leading to conflict. Read statements, arms sales and exercises carefully, since they can raise escalation risks even when governments prefer economic stability.

5. Note5 / 8

   How Taiwan's situation arose

   Foreign powers and Japan established spheres of influence in China during the late 19th and early 20th centuries, shaping Chinese nationalist sentiment. The Qing dynasty fell in 1912. The Kuomintang (KMT) and Communist Party of China (CPC) emerged in this period; their shifting alliance against foreign imperialism gave way to civil war.

   In 1949, the CPC prevailed on the mainland and established the People's Republic of China on 1 October. Chiang Kai-shek and supporters relocated to Taiwan, where the Republic of China (ROC) government continued. The ROC and PRC historically each claimed to represent China as a whole. Taiwan now functions with its own democratic government, currency and armed forces, while Beijing maintains that Taiwan is part of China. These terms are politically contested; they are used descriptively here.

6. Note6 / 8

   The two entities at a glance

   Taiwan: Official name: Republic of China (ROC). Seat of government: Taipei. Form of government: multiparty democracy. Territory administered: Taiwan and nearby islands, including Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu.

   Mainland China: Official name: People's Republic of China (PRC). Seat of government: Beijing. Form of government: single-party socialist state. Territory administered: mainland provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities.

   UN membership: The PRC holds China's seat at the United Nations following General Assembly Resolution 2758 (1971). Taiwan is not a UN member and participates in few international organisations.

   Diplomatic recognition: Most countries, including India, maintain formal diplomatic relations with Beijing and unofficial relations with Taipei. A small number maintain formal ties with Taipei.

7. Note7 / 8

   Why this matters for India

   India maintains formal diplomatic relations with the PRC and unofficial economic and cultural relations with Taiwan, broadly in line with many countries. India's semiconductor mission and electronics manufacturing ambitions are connected to global supply chains in which Taiwan is central; disruption could affect Indian manufacturers. The sea and air routes around Taiwan matter to Indo-Pacific stability and India's commerce. US-China relations also shape the regional environment in which India pursues partnerships and strategic autonomy. India's cross-Strait policy can evolve; check current Ministry of External Affairs statements before relying on this summary.

8. Note8 / 8

   

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