Great-power rivalry opens a middle-power moment for India and others

The brief in 7 cards

1. Note1 / 7

   WHY IN NEWS?

   • Economic, technological and diplomatic power is spreading beyond the traditional superpowers.
   • Middle powers such as India, Brazil, Japan, Germany, Indonesia and South Africa increasingly shape global governance.
   • They act through strategic autonomy, coalition-building and diplomacy.
   • An opinion piece in The Hindu describes this as a "middle power moment". Influential countries that are not superpowers have a growing chance to shape rules, mediate conflicts and sustain cooperation.
2. Note2 / 7

   KEY CONCEPTS

   1. What is a middle power?

   It is a state with significant economic, diplomatic or military weight that is not a superpower. Such states tend to rely on multilateralism, coalitions and mediation to exert influence.

   2. What is the "middle power moment"?

   It is the opening created when great-power rivalry weakens consensus. Middle powers can then broker deals, set norms and build coalitions that superpowers cannot.

   3. How do strategic autonomy and multi-alignment differ?

   Strategic autonomy means keeping freedom to make decisions without binding alliances. Multi-alignment is one way to do it: partnering with competing powers at the same time.

3. Note3 / 7

   WHY THIS MOMENT HAS ARRIVED

   Several shifts have created the opening. The table lists each with an example.

   Factor	Example
   Outdated institutions	The UN Security Council's permanent membership still reflects 1945
   Great-power rivalry	India works with both the Quad and BRICS
   Spreading economic power	India's growing role in global services and manufacturing
   Supply-chain shifts	India joins Indo-Pacific supply-chain resilience initiatives
   Technology competition	India promotes Digital Public Infrastructure
   Global South demands	India hosts Voice of Global South Summits
   Uncertain leadership	WEF's Global Risks Report 2026 expects a more fragmented, multipolar order

4. Note4 / 7

   WHAT MIDDLE POWERS DO, AND INDIA'S ROLE

   Middle powers act across many issues. The table gives an example of each role.

   Role	Example
   Reform of institutions	G4 (India, Brazil, Germany, Japan) push for Security Council reform
   Mediation	Türkiye helped broker the Black Sea Grain Initiative
   Issue-based coalitions	Quad cooperation on maritime security and critical technologies
   Climate leadership	International Solar Alliance, launched by India and France
   Connectivity	INSTC and IMEC trade corridors
   Health diplomacy	India's Vaccine Maitri during COVID-19
   Development finance	The BRICS New Development Bank
   Digital norms	India's push for Digital Public Infrastructure at its 2023 G20 presidency

   India's distinct contributions:

   • Multi-alignment: It engages the US, Russia and BRICS at the same time.
   • Global South voice: The African Union became a permanent G20 member during India's 2023 presidency.
   • Maritime security: Through SAGAR and MAHASAGAR, it promotes regional cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
   • Climate diplomacy: It leads the ISA and the Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure.
   • Connectivity: It pursues the Act East Policy and the INSTC.
5. Note5 / 7

   CHALLENGES

   • Divergent interests: Middle powers lack a shared agenda. India's security concerns about China differ from Brazil's economic ties with Beijing.
   • Economic vulnerability: External shocks limit independent action. The IMF warns that geopolitical fragmentation threatens trade and capital flows.
   • Limited coercive power: Diplomacy alone cannot stop aggression, as the Russia-Ukraine war shows.
   • Great-power pressure: Dependence on technology and markets constrains autonomy amid US-China tech rivalry.
   • Weak coordination: No institution unites middle powers, and BRICS members have different priorities.
6. Note6 / 7

   PSIR LENS

   1. How does realism view middle powers?

   Realists argue that power and security decide outcomes. Middle powers have limited material capabilities, so they hedge between great powers rather than reshape the system.

   2. How does liberal institutionalism view them?

   Liberal institutionalists see middle powers as natural champions of rules and institutions. Cooperation through bodies like the G20 multiplies their influence.

   3. What do middle-power theorists add?

   Scholars such as Andrew Cooper, Richard Higgott and Kim Richard Nossal describe "middle-power behaviour". They see these states as niche diplomats who mediate, build coalitions and act as good international citizens.

   4. How does India's approach fit?

   India's multi-alignment draws on its non-alignment tradition, now adapted to a multipolar world. It pursues interests pragmatically while claiming to speak for the Global South.

7. Note7 / 7

   WAY FORWARD

   These are the article's suggestions, not adopted policy.

   • Reform the UN Security Council, IMF and World Bank, building on the G4's proposals.
   • Strengthen issue-based partnerships such as IBSA (India, Brazil, South Africa).
   • Diversify defence, energy and technology partners, including in semiconductors.
   • Coordinate Global South demands for climate finance and debt relief.
   • Uphold sovereignty, peaceful settlement of disputes and consistent application of international law under the UN Charter.

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