Amazon now emits more carbon than it absorbs, Nature study finds

The brief in 7 cards

1. Note1 / 7

   WHY IN NEWS?

   • The Amazon is the world's largest tropical rainforest. It is a major carbon sink, a biodiversity hotspot and a regulator of the water cycle.
   • A study published in Nature on 21 October 2026 finds the Amazon has become a net carbon source.
   • US and Brazilian researchers drew on more than 1,000 aircraft measurements of carbon dioxide from 2010 to 2024.
   • The finding reflects the combined pressure of human activity and climate change.
2. Note2 / 7

   KEY FINDINGS

   The table summarises the study's main results as reported.

   Finding	Detail
   Net emissions	About 0.32 billion tonnes of carbon a year on average, roughly 1.17 billion tonnes of CO₂
   Main source	Fires, estimated by the note at about 0.40 billion tonnes of carbon a year
   Forest's own balance	Close to neutral once fires are excluded
   Peak year	2024, at about 0.81 billion tonnes of carbon
   Cause of fires	About 98% of fires in 2023 and 2024 were lit by people; only 1.6% came from lightning
   Climate stress	The 2023-24 El Niño deepened drought and raised wildfire risk

3. Note3 / 7

   WHAT IS DRIVING THE SHIFT

   Human activity and climate reinforce each other.

   • Farming: Cattle ranching and soybean cultivation drive forest clearing, especially in Brazil.
   • Mining and roads: Logging, mining and road-building break up forests. The note reports mining area grew 272% between 2010 and 2024.
   • Fire: Land-clearing fires spread widely during droughts. The World Resources Institute reported a sharp rise in fire-driven tropical forest loss in 2024.
   • Weaker rain: Forest loss reduces evapotranspiration, the moisture trees return to the air, so less rain is recycled.
   • Feedback loop: Forest loss leads to less rain, then drought, wildfires and more emissions. IPCC assessments describe this loop.
4. Note4 / 7

   KEY CONCEPTS

   1. What is the difference between a carbon sink and a carbon source?

   A sink absorbs more carbon than it releases, as healthy forests and oceans do. A source releases more than it absorbs.

   2. How did the study measure the Amazon's carbon balance?

   Aircraft sampled air at different heights above the forest. Comparing CO₂ levels let scientists estimate the region's net carbon exchange from the top down.

   3. What is the Amazon's tipping point?

   Scientists warn that beyond a certain level of forest loss, parts of the Amazon could turn into drier, grass-dominated landscapes. This is called savannisation, and it would release large carbon stocks.

5. Note5 / 7

   GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS

   • Climate: The Amazon stores an estimated 150–200 billion tonnes of carbon in vegetation. Losing it would speed up global warming.
   • Biodiversity: The region holds about 10% of known species, including jaguars and pink river dolphins.
   • Water: Changed moisture flows threaten farm output across South America.
   • Livelihoods: Tens of millions of people, including Indigenous communities, depend on the region.
6. Note6 / 7

   INDIA'S FOREST CARBON OUTLOOK

   A 2026 study in Environmental Research: Climate modelled how India's forests may respond to climate change. It projects vegetation carbon rising by 2100 under three scenarios.

   Emissions scenario	Projected rise in vegetation carbon by 2100
   Low	35%
   Medium	62%
   High	97%

   • Rising CO₂ and rainfall drive the projected gains. The largest relative rises are in Rajasthan, Gujarat and western Madhya Pradesh.
   • The models leave out fire, pests, drought and deforestation. These projections do not mean warming is good for forests.
   • The Forest Survey of India puts India's forest carbon stock at 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023.
7. Note7 / 7

   WAY FORWARD

   These are suggested measures, not approved policy.

   • Enforce zero-deforestation policies with satellite monitoring, as Brazil's PRODES system does.
   • Strengthen fire early-warning systems and community fire prevention.
   • Promote agroforestry and sustainable cattle ranching.
   • Recognise community forest rights, since Indigenous territories show strong conservation results.
   • Strengthen REDD+, the Amazon Fund, the Paris Agreement and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.
   • In India, implement the Green India Mission, CAMPA and MISHTI to restore ecosystems.

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